December 2008

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A vegan recently tried to convince me of the health merits of his lifestyle over mine by quoting a study.  The main point was that when comparing a certain set of markers associated with good health between a population of vegans and the general population, the vegans scored better.  Obviously, this meant that being a vegan was better than eating meat.

I remain unconvinced.  At first glance the figures seem very convincing, in a way, but they do not stand up to scrutiny.  The biggest flaw is that the study is comparing a population with a high awareness of what they eat to a general population that range from meat eating health fanatics to sedentary fast food consumers.  It is not a focused study, and all it really says is that people who follow a consistent diet without most junk food do better than a sample that doesn’t.  For the study to be convincing it needs to start by comparing two like groups where one eats animal protein and one doesn’t.

Unfortunately, the use and abuse of statistics might as well be regarded as best practice. When it comes to influencing decisions or creating a story it is painfully effective, and unfortunately most people do not have the knowledge needed to call bullshit. What is frustrating is that often the data used is obviously poorly selected, gathered with little thought and misrepresented to produce the most bizarre insights.

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It is the weekend again and there is another home game on Sunday at Lang Park.  Personally I find Sunday night games a bit of a chore. You cannot overindulge or continue for too long afterwards, because you need to go to work the next day, and all I really want to do on a Sunday is as little as possible.  I also know that I am not the only person who thinks this.

Every weekend this season I feel like I am closer to just not going, and this is with the sunk cost of a season ticket too. There are really only two things that keep me turning up.  I have no Foxtel so I can’t watch it from home and I like the guys I hang out with at the game.  Obviously if a few of them stopped going, then I probably wouldn’t either, and I am sure this would apply to a few others too. So potentially, should three or four of the regulars stop going, potentially twice as many will not show up the next week. This is only a small group, but how many of the rest of the crowd are made up of the same kinds of social groups?

Unfortunately for the clubs, this is something that cannot be reliably tracked through watching for trends. It is the unpredictable failure point which can lead to a response greater than anticipated that is the issue.  So how do you measure for the failure point of a crowd?  Quantitative data, qualitative data?  Guess or try to gauge the opinions of the loudest members of the groups through their preferred social networks?  It might just be easier to provide them with what they want in the first place, and just maybe, play a few less games on Sunday.

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