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Salami and salad are an aggregate of different ingredients. Both salami and salad are diverse, mixing a range of different yet similar stuff into the one package, a lot like Twitter and Facebook. Combining so much into one easily consumed package is almost revolutionary in a world where meat offcuts and lettuce had until that time stood alone, solitary and distinct – somewhat similar to what was seen with Web 2.0, where user generated content was spread across sites like Geocities and other free hosts to be replaced with Myspace and Blogger, sites and tools that connected and generated content like never before.

Social Media Sandwich

Social Media Sandwich

Why not go further? Why not move from a boring world of plates, knives and forks, to a place where salami and salad can be enjoyed at the same time between two pieces of bread? The sandwich is a truly revolutionary construct. Taking the best of both foods and making them available in the one easy to consume package through the medium of baked goods.

How do you eat it? Must you use a plate, can you carry it with you, maybe it is only available in a specific restaurant and you can’t take it away? Or is it the übermensch of sandwiches and able to be eaten in whatever way you see fit, and if so, is this the revolutionary development? There are a lot of content aggregation tools available now, from Friendfeed through to Google Buzz, Windows Live Messenger Beta and device specifc tools like MOTOBLUR, Flipboard and Google’s Social Search. They vary greatly in capabilities, sources of media they can access and curation tools, but they perform the same task for the user.

A lot of these services and tools take a few social media activity streams and create a single feed, but a few index or include the content linked to and present it to the user directly. Flipboard delivers this content in the app, and Google Social Search presents the links in a results page of a relevant search query.

Questions of fair use and legality aside, providing socially sourced content from multiple sources in the one place with tools to make this information manageable is a significant development in how the Internet is used. From Google’s personalisation of search to the increasing importance of social networks for filtering content and the shift away from static portals, each user’s experience of the Internet is becoming more unique.

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Brands do not just have one touchpoint anymore. There are a lot of sites with different tools, an established audience, and people creating content about about many things, including companies and brands. From a company Facebook page or group to augmented reality brand hacking or conversations on Twitter, content created by Internet users about brands is more visible and varied than ever.

Why the website

Why the Site

Devoting all content creation and administration resources to single site or community is no longer the best strategy. Internet users seek out different content in different formats for different platforms. What meets their needs on their mobile phones will be different to what they want on their desktop computer, or their netbook, web-enabled TV, or tablet device. After all, social media is just people being people online, and what they use and how is a result of this.

The kind of platform and task they want to complete changes how they search for, evaluate and use content. From asking their social network for advice, to searching for product demonstrations on YouTube or store locations on Google Maps.

There is a need for the ‘Big Website’ and campaign or product specific microsites. While there is a need for control over a hub to facilitate list building, acquire links and generate direct navigation traffic, sites and microsites will be a part of the mix. While Facebook is not likely to suffer the same fate as Blogetery, developing content on external platforms also comes with a certain level of risk.

Being visible across multiple, relevant platforms, sites and communities gives brands the chance to manage the user’s experience of the brand. Providing compelling content and engaging with customers, the brand can develop on its campaigns further, ensure that customer service queries can be responded to and clarify information about their products.

Creating brand touchpoints like fan pages is an “as well as”, not an “instead of” developing microsites and promoting the the brand’s main web presence. They are an opportunity to put content in front of the customer in the place that they already are, and in a format tailored for the situation. A YouTube channel, Second Life store and a Facebook page are not a substitute for the spaces online that the brand controls.

Comic from Why the Site

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For open, transparent companies with an amazing product and service experience, social media engagement can create huge benefits, but like most things in business there are risks.

Social media is just people being people online, but with better tools. Nothing has changed in their behaviour; it is their ability to be found and heard, and find others who think the same that is new and significant. Social media and the internet amplify the voices of those who publish content online, whether they love you or hate you.

Sometimes people will say things that businesses would prefer them not to. The internet has made it easier than ever to publish and spread this material. Sites like Facebook and WordPress make it easy to tap into an existing audience, or get indexed by Google and appear in brand searches. When a product or service has a branded social media presence or community, it can give them access to a highly relevant audience for their dissatisfaction, ire and angst, which can disrupt the business’ promotional activity and damage the brand.

It is hard to completely avoid this risk without losing the benefits from fostering conversation and building online communities. Here are a few ways a business can prepare to address these problems if or when they arise:

  • Anticipate the negative responses and plan on how and how not to respond
  • Make internal stakeholders aware of what can go wrong
  • Communicate response plans and processes internally with key stakeholders
  • Ensure that those with the authority to respond in negative situations are easily reached
  • Make staff aware of relevant policies

If no thought is given to what might go wrong, there is a greater risk of the company responding badly, and inflaming the situation further. Planning for problems that may arise before the fact ensures that the business’ response will most likely be timely, articulate and appropriate.

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In my last post, “Too soon for decisions”, I discussed applying a consistent set of rules to campaigns to assess the performance of new ads and targeting. However, in practice, assessment and tracking an AdWords or Facebook campaign can be an interesting exercise.

The data generated by a campaign is not a true representation of the population. The data is a snapshot limited by the markets targeted and the visibility available for the budget spent. Any single campaign can be exposed to direct competition over the whole market or specific subgroups. For example, just because “Campaign A” does not get traffic from Victoria does not mean that no-one in that state is searching for “Keyword B”.

A competitor could simply be focused on that market and value the traffic more. Other factors to consider are the effectiveness of the competition’s creatives and offers, the appeal of their product, efficiency of their site in turning clicks into sales and how much they return per conversion. All of these factors will influence their budget, and how much they are willing to spend per click or impression. Tools provided by the advertising networks that increase the efficiency of campaigns like Remarketing are also worth considering.

According to Wikipedia, a confidence interval is defined as:

…a particular kind of interval estimate of a population parameter. Instead of estimating the parameter by a single value, an interval likely to include the parameter is given. Thus, confidence intervals are used to indicate the reliability of an estimate. How likely the interval is to contain the parameter is determined by the confidence level or confidence coefficient. Increasing the desired confidence level will widen the confidence interval.

In use here, it is assumed that between similar competitors, the average Cost Per Acquisition (CPA) within the group is likely to be within a 95% confidence interval of the known CPA.

Confidence interval and estimated CPA

Confidence interval and estimated CPA

Confidence interval can give you an estimate of what other bidders may be paying for a conversion, assuming they are operating as efficiently as you are. In the graph included above, confidence interval of the CPA is used to estimate the most likely highest possible CPA a campaign can still compete on. In conjunction with Cost Per Click data, it is fair to assume that the competitors in the query space are willing to spend over the highest likely observed CPA. Reasons for their bidding strategy can vary from shutting out competitors by absorbing a short term loss, to a higher sustainable CPA. In a query space where a number of different verticals are competing for the same traffic, this metric is considerably less useful and your mileage may vary. For comparing CPA campaigns, creating a model for understanding the market, or simply to assess which ads are potentially performing a lot better or worse than your target in the face of direct competition, it is a useful tool.

Confidence interval can be a guide to how much your competitors expect to spend per conversion, assuming a lot of similarity in product and business practices. Arbitrage and industries with heavily commodified products are prime candidates for this, as well as campaigns with a very aggressive high cost bidding strategy, such as those competing directly with another member of your industry.

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When can you start to assess and optimise online advertising campaigns in a meaningful way? Adwords, Yahoo! Search Marketing, LinkedIn and Facebook ads allow for an amazing level of market segmentation. Small, highly specific populations can be targeted by a large number of different variables. By their very nature these highly specific campaigns sometimes only generate low levels of traffic and sales, and consequently have a high level of apparent volatility over short time periods.

This volatility is an interesting challenge for account management, and can create a risk in responding to rapid changes. Low traffic and conversion numbers make it difficult to collect meaningful data over short time periods, making it hard to tell the difference between an emerging negative trend and an outlier. This creates problems in both managing low activity campaigns, campaigns in highly competitive and volatile markets, and new campaign testing.

Averages, Standard deviations and Confidence intervals

Averages, Standard deviations and Confidence intervals

Averages, standard deviation and confidence intervals are a few statistical tools available for analysing the data. The actual figures used to determine response will vary from campaign to campaign even for the same product, due to other factors such as the size of the audience and the means used to reach them. The tools used to explore the information and create heuristics for guiding analysis often will not change.

The sample data tracks a gradual upwards trend in the average cost per conversion in a focused Adwords campaign. There is an outlier at double the mean that skews the mean and standard deviation in the third reporting period. Normally this would be discarded, as its apparent effect on both the reporting period and ongoing mean and standard deviation is significant.

It is only on the fourth reporting period that the data starts to become consistent. While there is still some volatility in each reporting period, the reporting period mean remains within one standard deviation of the ongoing mean. The hypothesis that the ongoing campaign mean at four reporting periods can be used as a guide for this campaign is supported by the confidence interval of the whole campaign data set. In the example campaign, it can be assumed that after four reporting periods, there will be enough information to make decisions regarding optimising this campaign.

The figures based on the whole campaign can be used as a guide for assessing the effectiveness of specific ads, placements and keywords while minimising the risk of removing a creative that can still be productive. These metrics provide a guide for deciding when a campaign, keyword or creative needs direct intervention, or may just be having a bad week.

The model that you create using data from previous and current campaigns is ultimately only a guide. It can be used as a framework for assessing creatives and traffic, but these heuristics will only ever be as good as the data they are derived from. There is need to review of any model used to guide the decision making process periodically. The market is constantly changing, be it SEM, social or display advertising. Factors such as seasonality of the product, external environmental factors and competitor activity can have a significant impact.

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People have always connected over common experiences; it creates communities. Sporting events, product launches and TV shows are all important Social Artefacts, and are a part of many communities’ shared experience. State of Origin, Lost, the iPad launch are all examples of public events that form a focus for interaction for many different groups. A lot of this activity is now happening online, through fan pages, hashtags, forums and general conversation.

A lot of people watch TV and discuss it with others watching the same things. Online Back channel conversations around TV shows, live events, launches and sport are more visible than before, thanks to platforms like Twitter and Facebook, adding an interactive social dimension to an otherwise passive experience. This behaviour is not new, but it used to be confined to narrow interest groups in their own online communities, with little visibility to those who are not already directly engaged.

TV’s place as a standalone source of entertainment and information has diminished over the last decade. The proliferation of mobile Internet-capable devices such as laptops, netbooks and smartphones have made it easy to consume content and interact with others while watching TV. This behaviour will probably become even more prominent in future, especially with products like Google TV.

There is a very interesting section in the Google TV Developers area:

  • Remember that TV is social.
    • Consider how groups might use your website or application.
    • Offer ways for individuals to use your site or apps in social settings.

Integrating the Back channel conversations around the content, and making it more visible than even Twitter’s hashtags will enhance the experience for the average user. With most social networks supporting cross-posting, posting out to the user’s Twitter and Facebook feeds from the TV based app, even a message as simple as “/me is watching Show” would be an effective form of social proof for the show exposed to the user’s friends. Similar tools are already being used by games.

Once a best practice has been established for TV as a platform, in terms of interface and hardware useability, this may be the killer app that keeps TV in the living room, and not just for consoles, media boxes, or Blu-Ray players.

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For value for money it is hard to top Facebook. It costs nothing and in return you can host photos and videos, communicate with people all over the world, consume vast amounts of content, create groups and participate in various communities. To create and host something similar yourself would cost a lot of time and money.

Free sites and services like Facebook, YouTube, and Google Search still have to pay their developers, provide hosting, repay investors and generate revenue to keep it all going. Traffic, registered users and great PR do not pay the bills by themselves; at some point cash needs to be involved. This is where the interests of those providing the services and those using them diverge.

Free at a price

There will always be a cost to the end user, and if it is not cash it will be something else. Lack of technical support, poor documentation, slow bug fixes, compromised privacy and exposure to advertising are a few ways operating costs are managed and paid for. Some paid services suffer some of these issues as well, but they are not the norm.

When the user pays, there is a clear cost in losing them and therefore higher expectations of service. When the service is free and the costs are paid for by advertisers and investors, creating value for them is important for the business. The advertising model is often the first choice for generating revenue and targeted traffic or impressions, and richer forms of display advertising become more important. When the user pays, creating value for them becomes important to the business.

Facebook appears to be going through this process now. A lot of the recent changes seem to create more value for advertisers than for some segments of their community. With Facebook being such a dominating presence, this is generating a lot of discussion. With all this focus on user control over data and experience, Diaspora could not have begun development at a better time.

Will you pay?

Diaspora as a social media platform will be interesting, and potentially very disruptive to this space. It looks easily accessible for many users, either through Turnkey or individually installed and operated servers. As a distributed network of easily installed and managed ‘Seeds’ across a variety of servers, Diaspora can be compared to WordPress. Based on the offers on Kickstart for funding, it seems that while the software will be free, access to Turnkey servers and technical support will cost money.

Diaspora at the very least will place a dollar value on privacy and control over your social media profiles, and it will ask one other question: Will you pay for access to a social media platform, either through hosting or a Turnkey server?

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Bing has had a relationship with Facebook since 2008, and it has just become more involved. The latest announcement regarding Bing’s relationship to Facebook appeared on Bing’s blog on the 5th of this month.

Briefly, web search through Facebook will continue to be developed, including the integration of more of Bing’s features, and this will be rolled out both in and outside of the USA. Facebook will provide all display advertising within their site; however, Microsoft will continue to provide the search ads. In the whole post, it is the following paragraphs that I find the most interesting:

Bing will continue to exclusively power the web search results on Facebook. This change will also enable Microsoft to continue its focus on driving strong performing campaigns across our own social media and communications tools, including Windows Live Messenger and Hotmail, and via rich content environments across MSN and Xbox Live.

This is an exciting time for us as we continue to work with Facebook on great new experiences for customers. As you know, Bing has been very focused on helping customers make important decisions. We believe that counsel from family and friends can be a big part of that process. Going deeper in web search experiences with Facebook, in addition to the collaboration we announced last October about bringing public data from Facebook’s API into the search experience, will enable us to do great things together for our customers.

By providing Facebook with its websearch functionality, Bing can get around the strong Google brand, and get its search tools in front of people where they already are, rather than attempting to change existing habits the hard way. Bing’s features are comparable to what Google provides through their search experience, and Bing’s intent to become a decision engine and their integration of Wolfram Alpha has a lot of potential.

When you stop and consider the social networks that Microsoft is already heavily invested in, working with Facebook makes a lot of sense. The quote: “…bringing public data from Facebook’s API into the search experience…” is interesting in what it points to. Google is leveraging their own social data through Gmail, Google Reader, etc, to further enhance their own search results, and to provide a better ad product.

How Bing will use the data is collects from Facebook will be very interesting. As a recommendation engine, Facebook is incredibly effective, and the volume of data that they collect is very cool, or very scary, depending on your views. Data mining how links, information, video and photos are shared, tagged and recommended would be invaluable for Bing. Between these announcements and the development of Google Social, search will be a very different place in five years time, at the latest.

It is very silly to write off Microsoft too quickly. While they did release Vista and they have gone through anti-trust litigation, they still have considerable resources, and large companies can still be creative and agile.

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